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RESEARCH:
My
research is directed at a variety of topics, related to large scale
modeling of land surface processes. This includes investigations into
forecasting and predictability, and effects of changes in land use
and climate on the hydrologic response of regions.
Some specific results from this research can be found on the Publications and Presentations page.
Global Warming and Hydrology
I have been looking at several aspects of this: changing impacts of El Niño in a warming climate, uncertainty associated with differing projections of various climate models, significance of the difference between emissions pathways and impacts on water resources.
An example of the latter: by examining the performance of many climate models over California's Sacramento-San Joaquin basin, statistical analyses can be performed to show where projected changes in precipitation, streamflow, and snow, for example, are significantly greater than the uncertainty of the models themselves. Also, for some impacts, it has been found that the difference is significant between whether we choose a higher (continuing to rely on fossil fuels) or lower (transitioning to sustainable fuels) greenhouse gas emission pathway.
Another area of work relates to adapting the output from coarse scale
climate models to represent better the natural spatial variability
of things like precipitation and temperature. I use statistical downscaling
to achieve this, and have downscaled climate model output across the
U.S.
Predictability and Hydrologic Forecasting
I
have looked at where runoff would be predictable at long lead times
(up to a year in advance), what the sources of that predictability
are, and where opportunities might lie for improving it. NASA/Goddard
has posted a web summary featuring recent findings on my research
on predictability, located
here.
I have also examined the possibility for using radar data to decide whether precipitation is falling as rain or snow in a hydrology model. This would be aimed at improving real-time forecasts of streamflow up to 24 hours.
Media
I am beginning to log my 15 minutes of fame, appearing on the local station KPIX (a CBS affiliate) on Aug 5, 2005, viewable online (click here to see the video clip "From above, the earth shows environmental damage").
I also stammered through the "Your Call" radio show on KALW on Aug 25, 2005 (click here for streaming audio - requires realplayer. I'm in the second half).
I'm quoted insubstantially in the Oakland Tribune on December 18, 2005.
Glennda Chui of the San Jose Mercury News included a quote from me on January 31, 2006.
I provide some commentary for the video short produced by the Union of Concerned Scientists, released May 2006.
I was quoted in two articles by Michael Moody in the Modesto Bee on October 8, 2006: Uncertain Future: Growth, climate change could spell disaster for Valley, state waterways and Early melt makes floods more likely.
I appear with my friend Al commenting on global climate change impacts on the Bay Area on TV channel 2, KTVU, on February 2, 2007. (click here for the video clip)
Data and analysis were recognized in the article "Muddy Slopes" at Sports Illustrated.com, published March 7, 2007.